Technical Report
Polymarket as a Search Benchmark
Nicholas Hope
Talarion ·
Abstract
In this report, we backtest agentic search systems on N = 287 resolved Polymarket markets. In prior work we quantified the information quality of search traces explicitly using withheld sets of evaluation questions pertaining to current world state. Here, we quantify information quality explicitly by forecasting on future world state. We selected genuinely uncertain (p ∈ [0.05, 0.95]) markets that were open as of July 1 2026 and settled by August 14 2026. Research agents were powered by gpt-5.6-sol and equipped with a time-boxed search tool. Forecasts were scored using binary Brier Score (MSE) against official resolutions. We implement a 3-layer foreknowledge contamination guard consisting of a domain blocklist, an in-run LLM foreknowledge screen, and an independent post-hoc audit. All displayed figures are derived decontaminated search results. We test Talarion as a breadth-first orientation layer for web search, producing a robust improvement to forecast quality for Exa, the strongest retrieval system tested.
Results
Figure 1 · Accuracy (1 − Brier) by Search System
Figure 2 · Brier Score by Market Category
| category | n | NO SEARCH |  PERPLEXITY |  BRAVE |  EXA |  TALARION + EXA | MARKET PRICE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all markets | 286 | 0.313 | 0.247 | 0.239 | 0.225 | 0.211 | 0.180 |
| other | 73 | 0.327 | 0.297 | 0.277 | 0.260 | 0.284 | 0.234 |
| politics / elections | 48 | 0.299 | 0.127 | 0.178 | 0.088 | 0.075 | 0.112 |
| geopolitics / conflict | 47 | 0.326 | 0.258 | 0.220 | 0.275 | 0.224 | 0.168 |
| business / corporate | 36 | 0.301 | 0.346 | 0.320 | 0.315 | 0.298 | 0.182 |
| economy / macro | 33 | 0.266 | 0.202 | 0.205 | 0.158 | 0.111 | 0.159 |
| science / tech | 25 | 0.354 | 0.266 | 0.220 | 0.221 | 0.230 | 0.171 |
| entertainment / culture | 14 | 0.349 | 0.231 | 0.257 | 0.352 | 0.287 | 0.276 |
| crypto price levels | 10 | 0.252 | 0.184 | 0.176 | 0.129 | 0.144 | 0.124 |
Remarks
Market selection
From 55,375 closed Polymarket markets with a scheduled resolution between July 1 and August 14 2026, we selected strictly binary markets that remained unresolved on July 1 and had settled unambiguously by August 14. From the resultant 2,789 markets we downsampled to one market per event (761); required a CLOB trade price between 5¢ and 95¢ on the forecast date of July 1 (608); and applied category filters to remove sports, social media, and most cryptocurrency markets. This left N = 287 liquid, genuinely uncertain and distributionally representative markets.
Foreknowledge decontamination
All retrieval is server-side bounded to before July 1 via the provider API. Due to known issues with fresh crawls being served under stale publication dates, all 38,000 kept results were additionally examined by gpt-5.5 as a foreknowledge judge.
Limitations
Judgemental forecasting on prediction markets is a severely limited evaluation tool. Binary prediction projects world-state understanding onto a single axis, losing much of the nuance that informs behavior in a higher dimensional action space. Furthermore, existing prediction markets are painfully sparse, providing poor distributional coverage for relevant research questions.
Data
Every market scored in this report is listed below. The machine-readable version is published at polymarket_backcast_markets.csv.
Table 1 · All 287 markets, prices at the forecast date, and resolutions
| market | category | price @ Jul 1 | resolved | volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | economy_macro | 0.80 | Yes | $40.50M |
| Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | politics_elections | 0.58 | Yes | $26.99M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.29 | No | $24.29M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.14 | No | $11.79M |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | business_corporate | 0.90 | Yes | $3.60M |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | No | $3.29M |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.09 | No | $3.28M |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | crypto_price_level | 0.34 | No | $3.21M |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.15 | No | $2.77M |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.06 | No | $2.48M |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | politics_elections | 0.86 | Yes | $2.46M |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.47 | No | $2.42M |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.26 | No | $1.89M |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.14 | Yes | $1.86M |
| Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | politics_elections | 0.46 | No | $1.84M |
| President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? | politics_elections | 0.90 | Yes | $1.54M |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.12 | No | $1.48M |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.88 | Yes | $1.24M |
| Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.94 | No | $1.17M |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4? | politics_elections | 0.12 | No | $0.97M |
| SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? | other | 0.05 | No | $0.96M |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | politics_elections | 0.76 | Yes | $0.95M |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.07 | No | $0.73M |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | science_tech | 0.95 | Yes | $0.69M |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.06 | No | $0.57M |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 6? | crypto_price_level | 0.08 | No | $0.56M |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | Yes | $0.53M |
| Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? | crypto_other | 0.92 | Yes | $0.51M |
| Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5? | crypto_price_level | 0.13 | No | $0.50M |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | economy_macro | 0.81 | Yes | $0.47M |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 8? | crypto_price_level | 0.06 | No | $0.44M |
| Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? | entertainment_culture | 0.25 | Yes | $0.40M |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 3? | crypto_price_level | 0.19 | No | $0.39M |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 7? | crypto_price_level | 0.57 | Yes | $0.39M |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.66 | Yes | $0.36M |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | politics_elections | 0.56 | No | $0.34M |
| Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | politics_elections | 0.25 | No | $0.33M |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | business_corporate | 0.09 | No | $0.31M |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026? | science_tech | 0.47 | No | $0.31M |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.32 | No | $0.30M |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.33 | No | $0.29M |
| Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | politics_elections | 0.80 | Yes | $0.26M |
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.75 | Yes | $0.24M |
| Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | politics_elections | 0.91 | Yes | $0.24M |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.36 | No | $0.24M |
| Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? | science_tech | 0.72 | Yes | $0.22M |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.07 | Yes | $0.21M |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July? | economy_macro | 0.26 | No | $0.20M |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | No | $0.19M |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 7? | crypto_price_level | 0.18 | Yes | $0.19M |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July? | economy_macro | 0.35 | No | $0.19M |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in July? | crypto_price_level | 0.19 | No | $0.19M |
| Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m? | entertainment_culture | 0.12 | Yes | $0.18M |
| Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? | entertainment_culture | 0.59 | Yes | $0.17M |
| Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | politics_elections | 0.88 | Yes | $0.17M |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.47 | No | $0.16M |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15? | politics_elections | 0.69 | Yes | $0.16M |
| Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? | entertainment_culture | 0.91 | Yes | $0.15M |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6? | business_corporate | 0.52 | No | $0.15M |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | business_corporate | 0.35 | Yes | $0.15M |
| Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? | economy_macro | 0.05 | No | $0.14M |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on July 7? | crypto_price_level | 0.60 | Yes | $0.14M |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? | science_tech | 0.09 | Yes | $0.13M |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.13 | Yes | $0.13M |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? | science_tech | 0.38 | Yes | $0.13M |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in July? | crypto_price_level | 0.07 | No | $0.12M |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.41 | Yes | $0.12M |
| Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.14 | Yes | $0.11M |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.23 | Yes | $0.11M |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.13 | No | $0.11M |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.28 | Yes | $0.11M |
| Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.09 | No | $0.11M |
| Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? | politics_elections | 0.08 | No | $0.11M |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.22 | No | $0.10M |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? | business_corporate | 0.23 | Yes | $0.10M |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? | economy_macro | 0.68 | Yes | $0.10M |
| Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | No | $0.10M |
| US bank failure by July 31? | economy_macro | 0.18 | Yes | $0.10M |
| Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? | politics_elections | 0.70 | Yes | $0.10M |
| US x China tariff agreement by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.06 | No | $0.09M |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? | science_tech | 0.90 | No | $0.09M |
| US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | No | $0.09M |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | entertainment_culture | 0.50 | No | $0.09M |
| Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m? | entertainment_culture | 0.28 | No | $0.09M |
| Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | politics_elections | 0.27 | Yes | $0.08M |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July? | economy_macro | 0.43 | No | $0.08M |
| Will Jason Kelce be a groomsman at Taylor Swift's wedding? | entertainment_culture | 0.53 | Yes | $0.08M |
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting? | economy_macro | 0.07 | No | $0.08M |
| Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | politics_elections | 0.85 | Yes | $0.08M |
| Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | entertainment_culture | 0.18 | Yes | $0.08M |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2? | other | 0.28 | No | $0.08M |
| No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? | economy_macro | 0.89 | Yes | $0.08M |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.06 | No | $0.08M |
| Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | economy_macro | 0.32 | Yes | $0.07M |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | No | $0.07M |
| Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? | politics_elections | 0.54 | Yes | $0.07M |
| Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | politics_elections | 0.94 | Yes | $0.07M |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.56 | Yes | $0.07M |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 3? | other | 0.41 | No | $0.07M |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? | economy_macro | 0.88 | Yes | $0.06M |
| Kash Patel out by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.06 | No | $0.06M |
| Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.27 | No | $0.06M |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 3? | other | 0.38 | Yes | $0.06M |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 2? | other | 0.32 | No | $0.06M |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in July? | business_corporate | 0.23 | No | $0.06M |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.83 | Yes | $0.06M |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2? | other | 0.34 | No | $0.06M |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 2? | other | 0.12 | No | $0.06M |
| Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election? | politics_elections | 0.94 | Yes | $0.06M |
| Will PH win the 2026 Johor general elections? | politics_elections | 0.12 | No | $0.06M |
| Trump signs housing bill by end of July? | politics_elections | 0.51 | No | $0.05M |
| Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? | economy_macro | 0.55 | No | $0.05M |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in July? | economy_macro | 0.06 | No | $0.05M |
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.13 | No | $0.05M |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 2? | other | 0.36 | No | $0.05M |
| Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? | politics_elections | 0.80 | Yes | $0.05M |
| Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? | politics_elections | 0.18 | No | $0.05M |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? | business_corporate | 0.95 | Yes | $0.05M |
| Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.25 | No | $0.05M |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.49 | Yes | $0.05M |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.07 | No | $0.04M |
| Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.20 | No | $0.04M |
| Will "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week? | entertainment_culture | 0.46 | No | $0.04M |
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | No | $0.04M |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of June 29 2026? | economy_macro | 0.42 | Yes | $0.04M |
| Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.08 | No | $0.04M |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 2? | other | 0.23 | No | $0.04M |
| Will Greg Stanton be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee? | politics_elections | 0.47 | Yes | $0.04M |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 3? | other | 0.17 | No | $0.04M |
| Megaquake by July 31? | other | 0.10 | No | $0.04M |
| Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? | politics_elections | 0.14 | No | $0.04M |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3? | other | 0.46 | No | $0.03M |
| Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? | politics_elections | 0.28 | No | $0.03M |
| Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | No | $0.03M |
| Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m? | entertainment_culture | 0.52 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3? | other | 0.29 | No | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 2? | other | 0.30 | No | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 3? | other | 0.28 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July? | business_corporate | 0.85 | No | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 2? | other | 0.14 | No | $0.03M |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026? | politics_elections | 0.90 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95 mph? | other | 0.34 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | politics_elections | 0.89 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? | economy_macro | 0.93 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 2? | other | 0.17 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 3? | other | 0.47 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July? | science_tech | 0.29 | No | $0.03M |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 3? | other | 0.29 | No | $0.03M |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 3? | other | 0.40 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 3? | other | 0.32 | No | $0.03M |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026? | science_tech | 0.21 | No | $0.03M |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of June 29 2026? | economy_macro | 0.24 | No | $0.03M |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? | economy_macro | 0.52 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 2? | other | 0.23 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.64 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $465 in July? | business_corporate | 0.10 | Yes | $0.03M |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 30-July 6? | business_corporate | 0.15 | No | $0.03M |
| Will Marquita Bradshaw be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? | politics_elections | 0.66 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.89 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026? | science_tech | 0.32 | No | $0.03M |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 2? | other | 0.32 | Yes | $0.03M |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.15 | No | $0.02M |
| Grok 4.4 released by July 17? | science_tech | 0.67 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of June 29 2026? | business_corporate | 0.13 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 3? | other | 0.24 | No | $0.02M |
| Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Storytime with the Second Lady Podcast? | entertainment_culture | 0.06 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? | politics_elections | 0.47 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 2? | other | 0.33 | No | $0.02M |
| Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.92 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Elizabeth Lee be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee? | politics_elections | 0.43 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Amish Shah be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee? | politics_elections | 0.41 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting? | economy_macro | 0.61 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.20 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting? | economy_macro | 0.69 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 2? | other | 0.24 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 2? | other | 0.56 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election? | politics_elections | 0.53 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | other | 0.34 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 3? | other | 0.31 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 3? | other | 0.41 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 3? | other | 0.53 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026? | science_tech | 0.14 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%? | economy_macro | 0.59 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31? | business_corporate | 0.93 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July? | business_corporate | 0.15 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B? | business_corporate | 0.92 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 3? | other | 0.29 | Yes | $0.02M |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.45 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 2? | other | 0.36 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Gemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026? | science_tech | 0.12 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 3? | other | 0.33 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on July 3? | other | 0.18 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B? | business_corporate | 0.43 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 2? | other | 0.18 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 3? | other | 0.32 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.40 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 2? | other | 0.29 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Vučić officially leave office by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.26 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 2? | other | 0.13 | No | $0.02M |
| U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.87 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 3? | other | 0.35 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 2? | other | 0.45 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | economy_macro | 0.46 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%? | economy_macro | 0.35 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 3? | other | 0.28 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 2? | other | 0.30 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 2? | other | 0.40 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 3? | other | 0.45 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 2? | other | 0.47 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.56 | No | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 2? | other | 0.31 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 2? | other | 0.33 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.85 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 2? | other | 0.39 | No | $0.02M |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.14 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.3B? | business_corporate | 0.82 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.15 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Trump praise Elon Musk by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.62 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Chris Stigall be the Republican nominee for MO-06? | politics_elections | 0.72 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B? | business_corporate | 0.93 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June? | economy_macro | 0.41 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.90 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.33 | No | $0.02M |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in July 2026? | science_tech | 0.28 | No | $0.02M |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026? | science_tech | 0.88 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 2? | other | 0.62 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 3? | other | 0.12 | No | $0.02M |
| Will GPT-Bidi-1 be released by July 31, 2026? | science_tech | 0.79 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026? | science_tech | 0.18 | No | $0.02M |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.94 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? | economy_macro | 0.85 | Yes | $0.02M |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.25 | No | $0.02M |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | economy_macro | 0.33 | No | $0.01M |
| James Comey charges dropped by July 31? | politics_elections | 0.10 | No | $0.01M |
| Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31? | economy_macro | 0.31 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 2? | other | 0.48 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Over $4M committed to the Squid public sale? | crypto_other | 0.50 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.13 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 2? | other | 0.14 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.23 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 3? | other | 0.66 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 2? | other | 0.48 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 29 2026? | economy_macro | 0.20 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $39B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.57 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 3? | other | 0.38 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 2? | other | 0.14 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.88 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? | politics_elections | 0.66 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 3? | other | 0.63 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting? | economy_macro | 0.20 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 3? | other | 0.20 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? | entertainment_culture | 0.06 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 1? | other | 0.10 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%? | economy_macro | 0.48 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 3? | other | 0.36 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 2? | other | 0.90 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 2? | other | 0.55 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July? | business_corporate | 0.48 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in July? | business_corporate | 0.08 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 1? | other | 0.50 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 3? | other | 0.36 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 29 above $195? | business_corporate | 0.78 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? | science_tech | 0.80 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B? | business_corporate | 0.93 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in July 2026? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.14 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in July? | business_corporate | 0.31 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 2? | other | 0.65 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on July 2? | business_corporate | 0.60 | No | $0.01M |
| Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by July 31? | economy_macro | 0.34 | No | $0.01M |
| Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | economy_macro | 0.48 | No | $0.01M |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by July 31? | entertainment_culture | 0.63 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 2? | other | 0.47 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.40 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? | politics_elections | 0.90 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Israeli forces enter Tyre by July 31? | geopolitics_conflict | 0.10 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 3? | other | 0.43 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? | politics_elections | 0.14 | No | $0.01M |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3? | business_corporate | 0.27 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on July 31? | business_corporate | 0.91 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.16 | No | $0.01M |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on July 3? | other | 0.34 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $144 in July? | business_corporate | 0.36 | No | $0.01M |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 83%-84%? | business_corporate | 0.42 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will "I Will Find You" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | entertainment_culture | 0.47 | Yes | $0.01M |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 3? | other | 0.23 | No | $0.01M |
| Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by July 31? | business_corporate | 0.49 | No | $0.01M |
| Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%? | economy_macro | 0.14 | No | $0.01M |